Worksheet 1 — Decision card

Use with chapter 1, Evidence before action. One card per decision. Fill it before you change anything. Works on paper; no account needed.

App: ______________________ Platform: ☐ iOS ☐ Android ☐ both Market (country · language): ______________ Date: __________

Goal this period: ☐ downloads ☐ paying users ☐ positioning ☐ other: ______________

1. Observation (facts only — no "because")

Normal range of this metric over the last 8–12 comparable periods: from ________ to ________ → Is the new value outside it? ☐ yes ☐ no ☐ don't know

2. Hypotheses (at least three, one of them boring)

3. Evidence strength

• Independent kinds of evidence pointing the same way: ☐ none ☐ one ☐ two or more
• Any evidence pointing the other way? ______________________________________________
• Known confounders in the period (release, price, featuring, ads, holiday, definition change): ______________________

4. Decision

• ☐ Act — the change: ______________________________________________
• ☐ Test — the comparison (tool, audience, share): ______________________
• ☐ Check — the one missing piece of evidence and where to get it: ______________________
• ☐ Wait — nothing changes now.

Cost of being wrong: ☐ low, easy to reverse ☐ medium ☐ high, hard to reverse

5. Re-check and trigger

Re-check on: __________ I will act if: ________________________________________________

I will drop this if: ______________________________________________

6. Where this goes next

• ☐ Test brief (worksheet 4) ☐ Measurement card (worksheet 8) ☐ Decision journal (worksheet 11)

Reminder: "Wait" and "check" are complete decisions. Write the trigger so future-you knows what would change your mind.