Worksheet 5 — Monetization diagnostic tree

Use with chapter 5, Monetization. Walk the steps in order and stop at the first branch that explains the change. Every branch is based on data you have; nothing here asks you to judge a paywall from a store page.

App: ______________ Platform: ☐ iOS ☐ Android Market: ______________ Period compared: __________ vs __________

The change you are explaining: new paying users / revenue went from ________ to ________

Step 0 — Is it outside the normal range?

Normal range (8–12 comparable periods): ________ to ________. Count-size check (only if N > ~20; assumes independent events and a stable rate; not a significance test): one period vs its long-run average ±2√N ≈ ______; two periods vs each other ±2.8√N ≈ ______.

• Inside the range → Branch W: wait. Re-check on __________.
• Outside → Step 1.

Step 1 — Did payment break?

Data: purchase-failed events, error logs, reviews mentioning payment, recent releases touching purchases.

• Errors up around a release → Branch T: technical. Go to worksheet 6.
• No change / no data → note "payment errors: ______" and go to Step 2.

Step 2 — Did acquisition change?

Data: first-time downloads/installs from the store console.

• New users fell about as much as paying users → Branch A: acquisition. Go to chapters 2–4.
• New users stable → Step 3.

Step 3 — Did the mix of new users change?

Data: first-time vs returning (redownloads), country mix, traffic source mix.

• Mix changed (e.g. many returning users who are not eligible for an introductory offer) → Branch C: composition. Explain the drop by the mix; consider a separate offer test for that group.
• Mix stable → Step 4.

Step 4 — Did activation change?

Data: your own event for the key action (first entry, first plan…).

• Share of new users reaching the key action fell → Branch V: activation. Look at onboarding and the last release.
• No event logged → Branch ?: can't tell yet. Add the event: ______________. Stop here.
• Stable → Step 5.

Step 5 — Did paywall exposure or response change?

Data: "paywall shown" per activated user; "purchase/trial started" per paywall view.

• Fewer users see the offer → Branch E: exposure (placement, onboarding, a flag or config change).
• Same exposure, fewer start → Branch P: persuasion. Only now write a paywall/pricing test brief (worksheet 4).
• No "paywall shown" event → Branch ?: can't tell yet. Add it before any redesign.

Step 6 — Did trial-to-paid or renewal change?

Data: store subscription/cohort views, your purchase events.

• Trial-to-paid or renewals fell → Branch R: retention/renewal. Check billing issues, offer changes, and the value users reach during the trial.

Result

Branch reached: ☐ W ☐ T ☐ A ☐ C ☐ V ☐ E ☐ P ☐ R ☐ ? Next action: ______________________ Re-check: __________

Platform comparison note (hint only, not a control group): ______________________